2014 Breeders’ Cup Saturday – Analysis/Selections

Race 5 – Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#3 Dank looks tough to beat. She is the best horse in the race and reportedly looks great in the flesh. Provided the long layoff hasn’t affected her, she should win. If she gets beat, however, #2 Just the Judge could be the horse to do it. The Irish G1 winner won the G1 EP Taylor in her last race and proved she fits with the Americans when she was beaten only a neck by Stephanie’s Kitten in the Beverly D (G1). #6 Fiesolana showed an impressive turn of foot in her Matron Stakes (G1) win two races back, and is another potential upsetter.

Selections

$2 Win: #3 Dank

$1 Exacta Box: #2 Just The Judge / #3 Dank / #6 Fiesolana

$2 WPS: #2 Just The Judge

Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

#6 Leigh Court is in career form, and while she’s quick, she proved that she can rate in her TCA (G2) win last time out over #10 Southern Honey and #3 Stonetastic. She’s undefeated in three starts at the distance and her versatility will make her tough. #5 Artemis Agrotera has won all three of her races since a disappointing 3yo debut in the Acorn (G1) . This distance seems to be ideal for her, and she may simply be the most talented horse in the race. #3 Stonetastic was brilliant in winning the Prioress Stakes (G2) and looked well in her Santa Anita work on the 25th. She seems to be the probable pacesetter in the race, and could simply wire the field.

Selections

$2 Win: #6 Leigh Court

$1 Exacta Box: #3 Stonetastic / #5 Artemis Agrotera / #6 Leigh Court

$2 WPS: #3 Stonetastic

Race 7- Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

I believe this race is all about #1 Reneesgotzip, who was 3rd in this race in 2012 and dead-heated for second in last year’s running. She appears to be the most talented horse in the field and seems to be the quickest in a race surprisingly low on early speed. #14 No Nay Never is probably her main competition. A G1 winner in France, he was impressive when winning the Woodward in his last start and has been highly regarded throughout his brief career. #6 Bobby’s Kitten has shown some speed and ability running at a mile and I believe he’ll appreciate the downhill turf course. His best races are his shortest ones, and he could be a live mid-priced horse to spice up exotics.

Selections

$2 Win: #1 Reneesgotzip

$1 Exacta Box: #1 Reneesgotzip / #6 Bobby’s Kitten / #14 No Nay Never

$2 WPS: #6 Bobby’s Kitten

Race 8 – Breeders Cup Juvenile

With the defection of American Pharoah, #12 Daredevil appears to be the horse to beat. He was brilliant in both career starts, but has yet to run on a fast racetrack. While that shouldn’t be an issue, it is nonetheless a question he has to answer in this race. #9 Carpe Diem is the “other Pletcher” here and has nothing wrong in his 2-for-2 career that includes a dazzling win in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity in his last start. His Beyer numbers are slower than his stablemates, but 2yos progress rapidly and he could prove to be better. #10 Mr Z has made his last four starts in stakes races, and has held his own in all of them except a disappointing 5th in the Iroquois Stakes (G3). He has not proven to be better than the best of the group, and needs a career-best effort to win, but he adds blinkers and has consistently proven to be all heart when it comes to competition. He could certainly come out with a check today. #7 Texas Red is probably the best west coast colt after American Pharoah and Calculator scratched, and if a few horses mix it up on the front end, he could be the one to pick up the pieces and post a significant upset. He improved dramatically when trying conventional dirt for the first time in the G1 Frontrunner, and further improvement makes him a live longshot in this spot.

Selections

$2 Win: #12 Daredevil

$1 Exacta Box: #12 Daredevil / #9 Carpe Diem / #10 Mr Z

$2 WPS: #7 Texas Red

Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Turf

As usual, the Euro imports look best in the Turf. #7 Flintshire  was second in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) and has been consistently competitive with the best horses in Europe. He looks like the best horse and is hard to look past in this spot. #1 Telescope is another contender from overseas, he adds Lasix for this race and comes in off a tough race behind Australia and The Grey Gatsby. He’s a multiple G2 winner and his last three Racing Post Ratings have been over 120. #3 Imagining is the one longshot I could see making some noise here. This consistent turf runner is in the best form of his career, and he appears to be the lone speed in this race. If Joel Rosario takes advantage of that, he could end up stealing the race on the front end. #12 Main Sequence is probably the best American runner, with three straight wins since coming to the States. He will need to run big here to win, but there’s no reason to doubt he is capable of doing just that.

Selections

$2 Win: #1 Telescope

$1 Exacta Box: #1 Telescope / #7 Flintshire / #12 Main Sequence

$2 WPS: #3 Imagining

Race 10 – Breeders Cup Sprint

I found this race pretty tough to handicap after #6 Rich Tapestry. The hero of Hong Kong was supremely impressive with his game win over Goldencents in his US debut, and looks to be the most talented horse in the race. After him, though, the race looks wide open. #12 Fast Anna puts blinkers back on after a runner-up finish in the Gallant Bob (G3) without them. Despite the less-than-impressive visual performance, he still posted a career-best Beyer of 97 in that race. With only four career starts, he’s still a bit of an unknown but the brilliance he’s shown so far indicates he could be pretty special. #2 Indianapolis is similar in the sense that we can’t be sure how good he is. He’s undefeated in three starts, but this is a tough spot for the graded stakes debut of the Baffert trainee. #4 Secret Circle won this race last year and will probably take some play, but I don’t foresee him turning the tables on Rich Tapestry, who beat him by 1 3/4 lengths in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1). In addition, #8 Palace has led the division in New York all year, and though he was a bit disappointing in his last race, there’s no reason he can’t get back to his best form here. He’s honest and consistent, and can’t be overlooked. #9 Salutos Amigos returns just six days after his impressive score in the Bold Ruler Handicap (G3). Trainer David Jacobson is plenty capable of the quick turnaround, but never in a spot like this. Salutos Amigos is in the best form of his life, though, and that could make him dangerous. I think the most intriguing longshot in this wide-open race is #14 Bourbon Courage. After a long losing streak while competing primarily in graded stakes races, he finally returned to the winner’s circle in his last race, a 6 1/2 furlong allowance at Keeneland. He is two-for-two at today’s distance and maybe the confidence booster was enough to get the five-year-old back into top form. The 14 post is disadvantageous, but you’re sure to get a price and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the board.

Selections

$2 Win: #6 Rich Tapestry

$1 Exacta Box: #6 Rich Tapestry / #8 Palace / #9 Salutos Amigos

$2 WPS: #14 Bourbon Courage

Race 11 – Breeders’ Cup Mile

I don’t have a strong opinion in this race, but think that #5 Toronado is the deserving favorite. He adds Lasix for this race and is competitive with the best milers in Europe. I see nothing to fault. #9 Anodin was only beaten two lengths by Toronado in the Queen Anne Stakes (G1), and has not embarrassed himself in two races since, including a runner-up to the talented Kingman. Of the Americans, #2 Obviously seems the most likely. He’ll be the one they all have to catch late, and while I don’t see him holding off the likes of Toronado, he should be able to hang in there for a piece of the purse.

Selections

$2 Win: #5 Toronado

$1 Exacta Box: #2 Obviously / #5 Toronado / #9 Anodin

$2 WPS: #9 Anodin

Race 12 – Breeders’ Cup Classic

#6 Shared Belief is the deserving favorite here, but I can’t take a short price on this horse in this race, so I’m going with #8 Zivo as my top selection. He’s the best closer in the race and has been steadily improving throughout this year. The 1 1/4 mile distance should be right up his alley, and I think he’ll be overlooked in a race where the 3yos are taking the spotlight. The pace looks to be hot in this race, with the likes of #4 Moreno and #7 Bayern both being need-the-lead types of runners. I don’t think Bayern wants 1 1/4, and from the outside I expect him to force Moreno to go early and will sit just off of him. I foresee Bayern folding at the top of the stretch, leaving Moreno to fight off the closers. Moreno has proven that he doesn’t quit once he’s been passed, but I don’t think he’ll have the energy left to fend off horses of this quality. Additionally, #2 Cigar Street has shown speed in most of his races, and while he’s not as fast as the other two front-runners, he will be a part of the early mix and add to that hot pace. #1 Prayer For Relief has been competitive against the best of the best for a long time, and reports are that he’s looking great in the flesh right now. Don’t be surprised if he hits the board at a big price, especially if the pace falls apart. #5 V.E. Day is something of an “X factor” in this race. The upset winner of the Travers (G1) was flat in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), and is tough to get a read on, talent-wise. James Jerkens can’t be counted out, though, making this horse a scary contender that could run big but is hard to back with confidence.Similarly, #9 Toast of New York has a huge question mark when it comes to the surface of this race. He’s never run on conventional dirt, and while he was second to Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic (G1), that was over Del Mar’s synthetic track. I’m choosing to leave him out, but he could prove me wrong and I wouldn’t be shocked. The two horses that would shock me are #3 Imperative, who is a solid and good-looking horse but doesn’t seem to be up to this level of competition, and #10 Footbridge, who was third in the Awesome Again (G1) and should appreciate ten furlongs but just seems to be in over his head against these. #14 Majestic Harbor is intriguing. The Gold Cup (G1) winner hasn’t done a whole lot in his two starts since, but as one was on synthetic he could have an excuse. He looked good in his October 26th work, and a return to the form he showed this spring and summer could make him a player. #12 Candy Boy has been chasing the best of his crop all year, but has been competitive and gets his first chance at running 1 1/4 miles since he was taken out of contention early on in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Three-year-olds are going to be getting most of the attention in here, with Derby and Preakness winner #13 California Chrome in the race. He was disappointing in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), where he was beaten 7 1/4 lengths by Bayern, but if he returns to his spring form he certainly has a shot, and drawing to the outside should help this colt, who doesn’t like to be inside of other horses. It will be his first time facing #11 Tonalist since the latter defeated him in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Since that race, Tonalist has continued to do well, most recently winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) over a number of horses in this race. He’s done nothing wrong in his career and has to be considered a major threat.

Selections

$2 Win: #8 Zivo

$1 Exacta Box: #6 Shared Belief / #8 Zivo / #11 Tonalist

$2 WPS: #14 Majestic Harbor

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