2016 Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-Year-Olds In Training Sale

The sales ring is a place where horsemen and -women try to predict the future of racing, trying to find the next great champion or champion producer. They look at pedigree, conformation, and any other information they can in order to divine which horses have the potential they’re looking for.

Some of the top competitors in our sport have sold at the Fasig-Tipton Midlantic Two-Year-Olds In Training Sale in the past, including recent graded stakes winners such as Dortmund, Materiality, Kaigun, and Tiz Shea D. On May 23rd and 24th, 337 two-year-old Thoroughbreds sold for a record total of $23,136,400 at Fasig-Tipton’s annual Timonium sale.

I have my eye on a few horses that went through the ring at the sale this year; some of them sold for hundreds of thousands of dollars, while others went unsold as RNAs. It will be interesting to see which, if any, of these young Thoroughbreds mature into top caliber racehorses.

I only attended the first day of the breeze sale, and as a result all of my selections will be from hip numbers 1-200.

Hip #196 – Bay Colt by Majesticperfection, out of Score Four (by Grand Slam)

I really liked the way this colt breezed, he reaches out well and almost leaps with every stride he takes. He breezed a furlong in 10.1 seconds, one of the quicker times of the day (the fastest time of 10 seconds was achieved by two horses on the day, while twelve of the first 200 hips breezed in 10.1 seconds). He has a very sprint-oriented pedigree, being a son of the brilliantly quick Majesticperfection and out of a Grand Slam mare. His second dam is a half-sister to multiple G1 winner Affirmed Success, whose 17 lifetime victories included the Vosburgh Stakes (G1) and Cigar Mile (G1). This colt sold for $175,000 to HND Bloodstock.

Hip #187 – Chestnut Filly by Drosselmeyer, out of Sandi’s Ready (by More Than Ready)

This rangy daughter of Drosselmeyer breezed in 10.2 seconds with very mild urging, and galloped out full of energy. As a daughter of Drosselmeyer, you wouldn’t expect her to be at her best breezing an eighth of a mile anyway, and despite that she breezed fairly quickly and I think it’s fair to assume she had more to give. She comes from a solid, if not spectacular, female family; her dam is stakes placed, and her granddam has produced an additional stakes placed runner as well as a multiple G3 placed runner. This filly was purchased by Dennis O’Neill for $45,000.

Hip #179 – Chestnut Filly by Caleb’s Posse, out of Royal Embassy (by Royal Anthem)

This filly sold privately for only $10,000, but I think she could have a bit of potential. She breezed in 11 seconds, but galloped out to a full mile with good energy before pulling up. She comes from a very interesting family – her second dam is Denmark-bred Swedish Horse of the Year Rossard. This makes the dam of this filly a half-sister to Unusual Heat. I’m very interested in Caleb’s Posse as a sire – he was a game miler and a good-looking stallion that has already had his first winner on April 28th at Gulfstream Park.

Hip #170 – Bay Colt by Ice Box, out of Rey Lake (by Meadowlake)

This powerful-looking colt breezed a quarter in 21.3, and was a handful to pull up afterwards. He cornered very well, even with a few hits left-handed, and switched leads beautifully. He is a half brother to three foals to race, all winners, including Tremont Stakes winner Bessie’s Boy. He sold for $200,000 to Hillwood Stables LLC.

Hip #84 – Primal; Bay Colt by Flatter, out of Molly (by Coronado’s Quest)

Despite going unsold with a reserve of $80,000, this colt was probably my top pick of the sale. He caught my eye coming onto the track, very much on his toes and looking excited to be out there. Interestingly, he was the only horse I saw at the sale that breezed without blinkers. Despite that and how excitable he seemed when coming onto the track, he was exceptionally focused when he was set down to breeze. He got a couple of taps on the shoulder, but aside from that his rider gave him very little urging, just letting him do things under his own power. He is a little on the small side, but was born in late May. His second dam is Canadian Champion 2-Year-Old Filly Primaly. In addition to that filly, his 3rd dam Primarily, a listed stakes winner at Woodbine, also produced Canadian Champion 2-Year-Old Filly Poetically, by Silver Deputy; G1 Gamely Stakes winner Citronnade, by Lemon Drop Kid; Fayette Stakes(G3) winner Whiskey Wisdom, by Wild Again; as well as the dams of New Zealand Trophy(G2) winner Sunrise Prince and multiple G3 winner Twilight Meteor.

Hip #58 – United Del Coco; Dk Bay/Brown colt by United States, out of Macho La Papa (by Macho Uno)

I have to give this colt a lot of credit for the amount of professionalism he showed in what could have been a very dangerous situation. His martingale strap broke before he began his breeze, leading to the entire thing ending up flapping around underneath of him a few strides from the wire. Despite that distraction, he kept to task very nicely, and has quite a smooth, long stride on him. His breeze time was relatively slow, covering a furlong in 11.1 seconds, but I think that could be forgiven considering the circumstances, and the fact that by a stallion that isn’t likely to draw any attention at the sales. That stallion, United States, sold for $2 million at the 2007 Keeneland September Yearling sale, which likely reflected not only his good looks but also his pedigree, being a son of A.P. Indy out of a half-sister to Kentucky Derby winner Fusaichi Pegasus. United States ended up disappointing on the racetrack, winning only once in nine lifetime starts (all at age four) before retiring to stud in Florida. The female family of this colt has some interesting connections if you go back far enough – his fourth dam is Lyphard’s Dancer, dam of 5 winners from 5 foals to race and half-sister to the immortal Storm Cat. United Del Coco ended up selling privately for $20,000, which I think is a very reasonable price for a colt that may be better than “son of a NW2L” might suggest.

Hip #35 – Dk Bay/Brown Filly by Aikenite, out of Lajitana (by Tiznow)

I think this filly could end up being another bargain missed out on from this sale. She was an RNA at $14,000, and I think that could be due at least in part to her slow breeze time of 11.1 seconds. Despite that, I think there are some positives here for the future. First off, her pedigree is very interesting. Her third dam is Sweet Damsel, the dam of 10 winners from 10 starters, including multiple G1 winner Colonel John and G1-placed/G1 steeplechaser Mr. Hot Stuff. Both of those foals were by Tiznow, the dam of Lajitana. In addition to that, I don’t think this filly’s breeze was as bad as it may have seemed at first glance. She had a very fluid, long stride until losing her action around the 16th pole, a few strides after changing leads. I’m not certain what caused the few goofy strides she took there, though I wonder if it may have been the whip, but I’m willing to chalk it up to greenness in a filly that otherwise looks to be fairly athletic.

Hip #32 – Bay Filly by Into Mischief, out of Lady in Ermine (by Honour and Glory)

I really liked the way this filly breezed, and apparently I wasn’t the only one, since she sold for $150,000. She’s a very nice mover, breezing a quarter in 21.4 and galloping out strongly. She had a lot of energy in her gallop and appears to cover a lot of ground with each stride. Her female family is solid, if not particularly flashy, with a stakes winner and producer under her second dam. Into Mischief has already proven to be a very good sire, with the likes of Goldencents, Vicar’s in Trouble, and Vyjack all graded stakes winners, and I think this filly has the potential to add on to her sire’s count of 13 black type winners.


A Decade of Derbies

“Who’s your Derby horse?”

The question is on everyone’s lips (and fingers) this time of year, with prep season complete and only a few short weeks left until the big dance. Obviously, most horseplayers have a shortlist of contenders that they think could win the Kentucky Derby; by the time the race runs on May 7th many of us will have determined which horses to use in multi-race wagers, which horses have a chance to round out exactas and trifectas, and which horses to take a stand against. Yet, despite the fact that most handicappers will have money on more than one of the twenty three-year-olds in the 142nd running of the historic classic, it’s nearly mandatory that racing fans have one horse they deem their Derby selection. Listening to Jason Beem discuss his five worst Kentucky Derby picks got me to thinking about my Derby selections during my time as a horse racing fan, which I’d like to recount here today.

My first ever “Derby horse” was Sinister Minister in 2006, and I can’t help but laugh at my 12-year-old self for thinking he had any sort of legitimate chance. I had seen his Bluegrass and was immediately on the bandwagon. I THINK he had hit the rail in one of his prior preps and that I decided that was a sign he was maturing at the right time, since he ran straight in the Bluegrass. I was oblivious to the notorious speed bias of Keeneland’s surface at the time. Needless to say, I believe he finished 16th and it was back to the drawing board for me.

I did better in 2007, I suppose, since my pick finished 6th that year. I had been on the Circular Quay bandwagon since he was a 2-year-old, and I guess leading up to the Derby he performed “okay” enough to keep me from jumping ship. Who knows, either way, it was another off the board finish.

In 2008, I was all about Pyro. I threw out the Bluegrass because I figured it was irrelevant to the Derby, and I was adamantly against Big Brown because he had never been tested in a race – a common angle in my Derby handicapping, and one that has served me well since, but one that doesn’t apply when the competition is just THAT inferior. Pyro finished 10th, while Big Brown went on to dominate in the Derby, Preakness, and Haskell.

I made a list of Derby horses, rating them from top to bottom in 2009, with a comment for each. My #20 was Mine That Bird, with the comment “doesn’t belong.” Strangely, I don’t remember who my #1 was. I know I liked Dunkirk going into the race because of the tenacity he showed versus Quality Road in the Florida Derby, but felt he might be too immature. My big long shot pick was probably my worst since Sinister Minister – although he actually did finish ninth – in West Side Bernie, another horse I had liked since he was two and somehow convinced myself was still logical. I think I ended up going with the public on Friesian Fire as my top pick because of his freaky off track performances in Louisiana. I’m pretty sure he was last.

Super Saturday 2010

16-year-old Jess at Belmont Super Saturday in 2010… because that’s the most relevant photo I have

I honestly don’t remember a whole lot of what I thought going into the 2010 Derby – I had to look up the chart just to remember who ran. I know that Super Saver was on my short list because of his potential to love a wet track, but he definitely wasn’t my top pick that year. I think that role went to the filly Devil May Care. I do remember my “residual 2yo choice” was Backtalk, although I had by that point wised up to my tendencies and didn’t actually think he would win. Good thing, too, since he was last. The one thing I do remember is being devastated when Uncle Mo scratched, because I was so excited to bet against him in the Kentucky Derby. He was the untested “super horse” type that I was always so keen to play against, and when he defected from the Derby, he took with him the only valid opinion I had that year.

I could have never had Animal Kingdom in the Derby, although I was firmly on the Shackleford bandwagon after what I thought was a valiant effort that day, an opinion that paid off two weeks later. 2011 was the first time my Derby pick hit the board, however, as I was all about Mucho Macho Man going into the race. Ironically, I would go on bet against Mucho Macho Man in pretty much every race he ran afterwards, often to my detriment.

I will admit that up until May 5th, 2012, I liked Gemologist. I was wary of him until his Wood Memorial, which I thought was a super gutsy and impressive effort. It was only at the last minute, when it came time to actually bet the race, that I switched trains. I’ll Have Another looked like a million bucks in the paddock and post parade, and I couldn’t believe the 15-1 odds on a horse that had done nothing wrong in his career. Even in defeat, he had always made a good showing of himself, and I felt that his style would suit the Kentucky Derby far more than the style of a horse like Bodemeister – who I didn’t even think would GET the lead with the likes of Trinniberg and Hansen in the race, much less hold on to get beaten less than two lengths. Despite being wrong about the runner-up, however, I had finally picked my first Kentucky Derby winner.

The 2013 Kentucky Derby was particularly thrilling for me. I spent the summer of 2012 as a press box intern for NYRA at Saratoga, an experience I will forever cherish. On the afternoon of August 18th, I was handicapping as usual, and, as usual, my interest went first and foremost to the two-year-old races on the card. As a pedigree nut, I love delving into the bloodlines of promising youngsters and picking out the particularly interesting ones to keep an eye on. I had already dialed in on a first time starter for Shug McGaughey. The Malibu Moon colt was out of Lady Liberty, who traces tail-female to Laughter, a 3/4 sibling and the only sister to the immortal Ruffian. With Laughter’s other descendants including the likes of Private Terms and Coronado’s Quest, the colt’s breeding was promising. I kept a keen eye as the Phipps/Janney owned colt broke awkwardly but recovered to rally strongly for 3rd.

“That Shug colt could be a good one once he figures out what he’s doing,” I remarked to my fellow interns following the race, and promptly added “Orb” to my Equibase watchlist. Of course, I didn’t really think I had just seen the next Derby winner, but perhaps a nice stakes winner somewhere down the line. Fast forward to the following spring, and Orb winning the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby, and I was firmly on board, convinced this wasn’t another Circular Quay or West Side Bernie, but a legitimate Derby contender. Sure enough, Orb pulled through as both my logical and sentimental selection in the race. The story would come full circle – no pun intended – when I got to see him at Saratoga multiple times that summer.

Orb - 2013 Saratoga Work2

Kentucky Derby winner Orb galloping at Saratoga’s Oklahoma training track in 2013

While handicapping the 2014 Kentucky Derby, I did everything in my power to find an alternative to California Chrome. I watched back tapes of every one of his races, trying to find a chink in the proverbial armor of the prohibitive favorite, but the more I watched, the more convinced I was that he was the real deal. I actually had to look up the race chart just to remember who else ran in that Kentucky Derby, and I do recall liking Samraat a little bit, and was curious about Danza, but in the end I landed on the chalk, and he won the way he had been expected to.

Last year was a similar story, although I was less skeptical of American Pharoah than I had been of California Chrome. The way that horse moved just blew me away from the time he first burst onto the scene in the Del Mar Futurity, and it seemed that everywhere you looked, horses he had soundly defeated were coming back and winning big races. Dortmund was the one horse I thought might be able to give Pharoah a run for it, with the tenacity he had proven but that his stablemate had yet to need. I managed to hit my first Kentucky Derby trifecta in 2015, keying the Bob Baffert duo on top with Firing Line and Upstart (who was last…) underneath.

Now here we are, ten years after naive little Jess watched Sinister Minister set the pace and fade badly, and the pressure is on to pick my 5th consecutive Derby winner. At this point in time, I am firmly in the Nyquist camp. As much as I felt Uncle Mo was overrated, I feel his son is the real deal. Many people are citing distance limitations as a reason to be wary of Nyquist, but I see no such problem. Uncle Mo was a speed horse who used a lot of mental and physical energy in his races, whereas Nyquist has the mind of an absolute professional. He has proven that he can be flexible in his running style without freaking out or exerting any more energy than necessary. He’s overcome difficult trips and various pace scenarios, and emerged victorious every time.

Of course, there’s still plenty of time for things to change, and Derby week workouts are always a useful handicapping tool, but as things stand now, I’m expecting a fourth straight Kentucky Derby favorite to take the roses.

Breeders’ Cup 2014 – Final Results

Now that the Breeders’ Cup behind us, I’ve totaled up my hypothetical winnings across the two days (ROI rounded to the nearest whole percentage).

Breeders’ Cup Friday

Investment: $46 (due to the late scratch of Lady Zuzu, the total is lower than it’d be otherwise)

Return: $35.30

ROI: -23%

Breeders’ Cup Saturday

Investment: $112


ROI: 66%

Breeders’ Cup Totals

Investment: $158

Return: $222

ROI: 40%

Overall, I am pretty pleased with my handicapping over the weekend – and unbelievably frustrated that I failed to make any kind of profit off of it in real life. Clearly, the Classic was the one race where I was just completely wrong. Despite the controversial break (which I believe certainly cost Moreno – the horse expected to go with Bayern early – all chance), Bayern really proved himself to me in his Classic victory. I hadn’t had much respect for him until this victory, where he managed to dig in and hold off Toast of New York and California Chrome late. He strikes me as a very similar horse to the recently retired Baffert trainee Game on Dude – if he gets the lead, he’s going to be nearly impossible to run down, but I think it’s pretty apparent that getting an early lead is vital to Bayern. It would be interesting to see what may have transpired had Moreno been able to get a clean trip, but regardless, I didn’t think Bayern had the quality or stamina to win the Classic, and he proved me wrong. It was nice to see California Chrome get back to the form he’d shown in the spring, with a very impressive third-place effort. He proved he really is the real deal, even if he didn’t win.

Horse of the Year award has been seriously muddled by the Classic. I still believe Shared Belief is probably the most talented horse in the country, but I also believe Horse of the Year is about the campaign a horse had through the year, and as much as I don’t want to admit it, Bayern deserves that honor. In my mind, Shared Belief needed to win the Classic in order to warrant Horse of the Year honors, despite his two impressive victories over older horses. California Chrome is also in the discussion, having won the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes earlier in the year. With such a top-heavy campaign, though, I’m inclined to look elsewhere. The wild card for Horse of the Year has become Main Sequence, who has yet to be defeated since coming to the United States. His 4-race win streak consists solely of G1 races, including a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Turf. To compare, California Chrome has three G1 wins this year, while Bayern and Shared Belief have only two G1 wins each. Honestly, I don’t have a strong enough opinion to give a selection or personal vote for the title. I believe any of those four horses would be completely deserving of the award, and I’m intrigued to see what the voters end up doing.

2014 Breeders’ Cup Saturday – Analysis/Selections

Race 5 – Breeders Cup Filly and Mare Turf

#3 Dank looks tough to beat. She is the best horse in the race and reportedly looks great in the flesh. Provided the long layoff hasn’t affected her, she should win. If she gets beat, however, #2 Just the Judge could be the horse to do it. The Irish G1 winner won the G1 EP Taylor in her last race and proved she fits with the Americans when she was beaten only a neck by Stephanie’s Kitten in the Beverly D (G1). #6 Fiesolana showed an impressive turn of foot in her Matron Stakes (G1) win two races back, and is another potential upsetter.


$2 Win: #3 Dank

$1 Exacta Box: #2 Just The Judge / #3 Dank / #6 Fiesolana

$2 WPS: #2 Just The Judge

Race 6 – Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint

#6 Leigh Court is in career form, and while she’s quick, she proved that she can rate in her TCA (G2) win last time out over #10 Southern Honey and #3 Stonetastic. She’s undefeated in three starts at the distance and her versatility will make her tough. #5 Artemis Agrotera has won all three of her races since a disappointing 3yo debut in the Acorn (G1) . This distance seems to be ideal for her, and she may simply be the most talented horse in the race. #3 Stonetastic was brilliant in winning the Prioress Stakes (G2) and looked well in her Santa Anita work on the 25th. She seems to be the probable pacesetter in the race, and could simply wire the field.


$2 Win: #6 Leigh Court

$1 Exacta Box: #3 Stonetastic / #5 Artemis Agrotera / #6 Leigh Court

$2 WPS: #3 Stonetastic

Race 7- Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint

I believe this race is all about #1 Reneesgotzip, who was 3rd in this race in 2012 and dead-heated for second in last year’s running. She appears to be the most talented horse in the field and seems to be the quickest in a race surprisingly low on early speed. #14 No Nay Never is probably her main competition. A G1 winner in France, he was impressive when winning the Woodward in his last start and has been highly regarded throughout his brief career. #6 Bobby’s Kitten has shown some speed and ability running at a mile and I believe he’ll appreciate the downhill turf course. His best races are his shortest ones, and he could be a live mid-priced horse to spice up exotics.


$2 Win: #1 Reneesgotzip

$1 Exacta Box: #1 Reneesgotzip / #6 Bobby’s Kitten / #14 No Nay Never

$2 WPS: #6 Bobby’s Kitten

Race 8 – Breeders Cup Juvenile

With the defection of American Pharoah, #12 Daredevil appears to be the horse to beat. He was brilliant in both career starts, but has yet to run on a fast racetrack. While that shouldn’t be an issue, it is nonetheless a question he has to answer in this race. #9 Carpe Diem is the “other Pletcher” here and has nothing wrong in his 2-for-2 career that includes a dazzling win in the G1 Breeders’ Futurity in his last start. His Beyer numbers are slower than his stablemates, but 2yos progress rapidly and he could prove to be better. #10 Mr Z has made his last four starts in stakes races, and has held his own in all of them except a disappointing 5th in the Iroquois Stakes (G3). He has not proven to be better than the best of the group, and needs a career-best effort to win, but he adds blinkers and has consistently proven to be all heart when it comes to competition. He could certainly come out with a check today. #7 Texas Red is probably the best west coast colt after American Pharoah and Calculator scratched, and if a few horses mix it up on the front end, he could be the one to pick up the pieces and post a significant upset. He improved dramatically when trying conventional dirt for the first time in the G1 Frontrunner, and further improvement makes him a live longshot in this spot.


$2 Win: #12 Daredevil

$1 Exacta Box: #12 Daredevil / #9 Carpe Diem / #10 Mr Z

$2 WPS: #7 Texas Red

Race 9 – Breeders’ Cup Turf

As usual, the Euro imports look best in the Turf. #7 Flintshire  was second in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) and has been consistently competitive with the best horses in Europe. He looks like the best horse and is hard to look past in this spot. #1 Telescope is another contender from overseas, he adds Lasix for this race and comes in off a tough race behind Australia and The Grey Gatsby. He’s a multiple G2 winner and his last three Racing Post Ratings have been over 120. #3 Imagining is the one longshot I could see making some noise here. This consistent turf runner is in the best form of his career, and he appears to be the lone speed in this race. If Joel Rosario takes advantage of that, he could end up stealing the race on the front end. #12 Main Sequence is probably the best American runner, with three straight wins since coming to the States. He will need to run big here to win, but there’s no reason to doubt he is capable of doing just that.


$2 Win: #1 Telescope

$1 Exacta Box: #1 Telescope / #7 Flintshire / #12 Main Sequence

$2 WPS: #3 Imagining

Race 10 – Breeders Cup Sprint

I found this race pretty tough to handicap after #6 Rich Tapestry. The hero of Hong Kong was supremely impressive with his game win over Goldencents in his US debut, and looks to be the most talented horse in the race. After him, though, the race looks wide open. #12 Fast Anna puts blinkers back on after a runner-up finish in the Gallant Bob (G3) without them. Despite the less-than-impressive visual performance, he still posted a career-best Beyer of 97 in that race. With only four career starts, he’s still a bit of an unknown but the brilliance he’s shown so far indicates he could be pretty special. #2 Indianapolis is similar in the sense that we can’t be sure how good he is. He’s undefeated in three starts, but this is a tough spot for the graded stakes debut of the Baffert trainee. #4 Secret Circle won this race last year and will probably take some play, but I don’t foresee him turning the tables on Rich Tapestry, who beat him by 1 3/4 lengths in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1). In addition, #8 Palace has led the division in New York all year, and though he was a bit disappointing in his last race, there’s no reason he can’t get back to his best form here. He’s honest and consistent, and can’t be overlooked. #9 Salutos Amigos returns just six days after his impressive score in the Bold Ruler Handicap (G3). Trainer David Jacobson is plenty capable of the quick turnaround, but never in a spot like this. Salutos Amigos is in the best form of his life, though, and that could make him dangerous. I think the most intriguing longshot in this wide-open race is #14 Bourbon Courage. After a long losing streak while competing primarily in graded stakes races, he finally returned to the winner’s circle in his last race, a 6 1/2 furlong allowance at Keeneland. He is two-for-two at today’s distance and maybe the confidence booster was enough to get the five-year-old back into top form. The 14 post is disadvantageous, but you’re sure to get a price and I wouldn’t be surprised to see him hit the board.


$2 Win: #6 Rich Tapestry

$1 Exacta Box: #6 Rich Tapestry / #8 Palace / #9 Salutos Amigos

$2 WPS: #14 Bourbon Courage

Race 11 – Breeders’ Cup Mile

I don’t have a strong opinion in this race, but think that #5 Toronado is the deserving favorite. He adds Lasix for this race and is competitive with the best milers in Europe. I see nothing to fault. #9 Anodin was only beaten two lengths by Toronado in the Queen Anne Stakes (G1), and has not embarrassed himself in two races since, including a runner-up to the talented Kingman. Of the Americans, #2 Obviously seems the most likely. He’ll be the one they all have to catch late, and while I don’t see him holding off the likes of Toronado, he should be able to hang in there for a piece of the purse.


$2 Win: #5 Toronado

$1 Exacta Box: #2 Obviously / #5 Toronado / #9 Anodin

$2 WPS: #9 Anodin

Race 12 – Breeders’ Cup Classic

#6 Shared Belief is the deserving favorite here, but I can’t take a short price on this horse in this race, so I’m going with #8 Zivo as my top selection. He’s the best closer in the race and has been steadily improving throughout this year. The 1 1/4 mile distance should be right up his alley, and I think he’ll be overlooked in a race where the 3yos are taking the spotlight. The pace looks to be hot in this race, with the likes of #4 Moreno and #7 Bayern both being need-the-lead types of runners. I don’t think Bayern wants 1 1/4, and from the outside I expect him to force Moreno to go early and will sit just off of him. I foresee Bayern folding at the top of the stretch, leaving Moreno to fight off the closers. Moreno has proven that he doesn’t quit once he’s been passed, but I don’t think he’ll have the energy left to fend off horses of this quality. Additionally, #2 Cigar Street has shown speed in most of his races, and while he’s not as fast as the other two front-runners, he will be a part of the early mix and add to that hot pace. #1 Prayer For Relief has been competitive against the best of the best for a long time, and reports are that he’s looking great in the flesh right now. Don’t be surprised if he hits the board at a big price, especially if the pace falls apart. #5 V.E. Day is something of an “X factor” in this race. The upset winner of the Travers (G1) was flat in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1), and is tough to get a read on, talent-wise. James Jerkens can’t be counted out, though, making this horse a scary contender that could run big but is hard to back with confidence.Similarly, #9 Toast of New York has a huge question mark when it comes to the surface of this race. He’s never run on conventional dirt, and while he was second to Shared Belief in the Pacific Classic (G1), that was over Del Mar’s synthetic track. I’m choosing to leave him out, but he could prove me wrong and I wouldn’t be shocked. The two horses that would shock me are #3 Imperative, who is a solid and good-looking horse but doesn’t seem to be up to this level of competition, and #10 Footbridge, who was third in the Awesome Again (G1) and should appreciate ten furlongs but just seems to be in over his head against these. #14 Majestic Harbor is intriguing. The Gold Cup (G1) winner hasn’t done a whole lot in his two starts since, but as one was on synthetic he could have an excuse. He looked good in his October 26th work, and a return to the form he showed this spring and summer could make him a player. #12 Candy Boy has been chasing the best of his crop all year, but has been competitive and gets his first chance at running 1 1/4 miles since he was taken out of contention early on in the Kentucky Derby (G1). Three-year-olds are going to be getting most of the attention in here, with Derby and Preakness winner #13 California Chrome in the race. He was disappointing in the Pennsylvania Derby (G2), where he was beaten 7 1/4 lengths by Bayern, but if he returns to his spring form he certainly has a shot, and drawing to the outside should help this colt, who doesn’t like to be inside of other horses. It will be his first time facing #11 Tonalist since the latter defeated him in the Belmont Stakes (G1). Since that race, Tonalist has continued to do well, most recently winning the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) over a number of horses in this race. He’s done nothing wrong in his career and has to be considered a major threat.


$2 Win: #8 Zivo

$1 Exacta Box: #6 Shared Belief / #8 Zivo / #11 Tonalist

$2 WPS: #14 Majestic Harbor

Breeders’ Cup 2014: Friday Analysis/Selections

Race Six – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf

The Juvenile Turf races are always a tough handicapping challenge. Trying to determine how the American form holds up against the always-tough European horses is the key to the race. This year, I think the race has to go through morning line favorite #5 Hootenanny, a Wesley Ward trainee who won the Windsor Castle Stakes at Ascot in June before being beaten only a length in the G1 Prix Morny in August. He looks to be the main speed of the race, and while he is going beyond 6f for the first time, I believe the son of Quality Road should be capable of staying the mile distance. #4 Commemorative has won his last two races, with his only other effort being a 4th-place effort in his debut. Both of those wins were at today’s mile distance, which makes me confident in his ability to be competitive in this race. Aidan O’Brien’s #7 War Envoy is likely to be the lowest price of the Euro invaders (aside from Hootenanny), at 9-2 on the morning line. In his last race, he was beaten only a length and a quarter while finishing 5th in the G1 Gran Criterium. His racing post ratings are steadily improving, and are among the highest in the field, but I am not convinced that he is the best of this group. He has won only one of his seven lifetime starts, and that was his April debut. That said, the son of War Front should relish the extra furlong he’ll be getting in this race, and even the second- or third-tier European horses are generally better than the Americans on turf. I believe #11 Imperia is the best chance of the American-raced entries. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee has only two starts under his belt, but broke his maiden in the second of those two races – the G3 Pilgrim Stakes. He added Lasix for that race and it resulted in a length victory over Vision Perfect, who came back to win Belmont’s Awad Stakes in his next start. Imperia was awarded an 82 Beyer figure for that win, one of the highest in the field. He should improve off of that race and could prove to be the best of America’s juvenile turf runners. #3 Luck of the Kitten is another major player from America. His win in the Zuma Beach Stakes was impressive, dueling for the lead and pulling clear to win by 1 3/4 length. One concern is whether or not he will have a problem in fellow Wesley Ward trainee Hootenanny, as both are proven speed horses. Luck of the Kitten has never been behind a horse in the first point of call in four lifetime starts.


$2 Win: #5 Hootenanny

$1 Exacta Box: #4 Commemorative / #5 Hootenanny / #7 War Envoy

$2 W/P/S: #11 Imperia

Race Seven – Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile

In the Dirt Mile, defending champion #1 Goldencents is hard to look past. He has been consistent all year and has been impressive in the mornings coming up to this race. In his last race, he ran huge to just be beaten in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G1) by Rich Tapestry. He used the same race as a prep before winning last year’s edition by 2 3/4 lengths. If Goldencents gets beat, I believe #9 Tapiture is the best shot to upset. He is a fighter on the track, and loves to engage with other horses in the stretch. He won two of his three races since a disappointing Kentucky Derby run, his only loss being a runner-up effort to Bayern in the G2 Pennsylvania Derby. He’s cutting back to a mile, which I believe is a much better choice than trying the 1 1/4 Classic, and should be stalking close enough to overtake Goldencents on the lead when the time comes. #8 Fed Biz was defeated by Shared Belief in his last race, the 1 1/8-mile Awesome Again Stakes (G1). Two races back, he was soundly beaten when running second to Goldencents in the 7f Pat O’Brien Stakes (G1), although that was on Del Mar’s synthetic surface. While he’s proven to be a capable and classy runner, I don’t think he’s better than Goldencents or Tapiture.


$2 Win: #1 Goldencents

$1 Exacta Box: $1 Goldencents / #8 Fed Biz / #9 Tapiture

$2 W/P/S: #9 Tapiture

Race Eight – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf

The Juvenile Fillies Turf is as tough to handicap as its male counterpart. #2 Osaila is coming off a win in an ungraded stakes at Newmarket. Prior to that, she was beaten only 1 1/4 lengths when finishing 5th in the G1 Moyglare Stud Stakes. She looks like the most talented of the group. #3 Sunset Glow  is the favored Wesley Ward trainee, having finished second in the Albany Stakes (G3) at Ascot in June – a race in which Osaila finished fifth as a maiden. She returned to the States to post victories in the G2 Sorrento and G1 Del Mar Debutante, both over Del Mar’s synthetic track. She’s quick early but rated in her latest score, so should be content to stalk if #5 Isabella Sings or #10 Quality Rocks, who look to be the other pace horses, are intent on getting the early lead. #14 Qualify is an Aidan O’Brien trainee adding Lasix for her U.S. debut. She won the G3 Weld Park Stakes in her last race, and prior to that was 6th  in the Moyglare Stud Stakes, over two lengths behind Osaila. The outside post could be a hindrance for her, but if she can overcome it perhaps she can turn the tables on Osaila and win. #4 Lady Eli is undefeated in two starts, including a dominating win in the G3 Miss Grillo in her last race. She looks to be a legitimate filly and could give the Europeans a run for their money. Another American I believe deserves a long look is #9 Lady Zuzu. The 2013 Fasig-Tipton Saratoga Sale topper was thrown to the wolves in her second start, finishing up the track in the G1 Spinaway after a third place effort in her debut, but on October 9th she returned to win a maiden special weight at a mile on the turf by 6 1/4 lengths. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas is high on her, and if she continues maturing after that victory, she is a player here and in the future.


$2 Win: #2 Osaila

$1 Exacta Box: #2 Osaila / #4 Lady Eli / #9 Lady Zuzu

$2 W/P/S: #9 Lady Zuzu

Race Nine – Breeders’ Cup Distaff

The Breeders’ Cup Distaff lost a major player with the defection of Beholder, but has become an even more intriguing race without her presence. #11 Close Hatches has been the leader of the division on the east coast all year, but ran a disappointing 4th in the Spinaway (G1) in her last start, a race that was won by #7 Don’t Tell Sophia. I think that performance can be thrown out despite the lack of any apparent excuse. If she is the same horse she has been all year, she should win, and that poor race should help her odds this time. That Spinaway victory was her best race in a year where her only defeat was behind Close Hatches in the G2 Azeri Stakes earlier in the year. She could be getting good at the right time, and has been a consistent runner her entire career, with 11 wins in 22 lifetime starts. Three-year-old #10 Untapable will be facing her elders for the first time in the Distaff. She is the indisputable champion of her crop, but will likely be favored in this spot and I am not sure if she can be trusted. While an incredibly talented filly, I question whether she peaked too early in the year with her dominating Kentucky Oaks win and prep season. Her Beyer numbers have not come close to the 106 and 107 she ran in the Fair Grounds Oaks and Kentucky Oaks earlier this season; in her last three races she has posted a 94 and two 96 Beyer figures. On her best day, she wins this race, but I don’t think she presents value. #4 Belle Gallantey has been in the form of her life this year, but her best races seem to come when she has the lead and with the likes of #2 Tiz Midnight, #3 Iotapa, and Close Hatches in the race, I don’t think she’s quick enough to obtain her ideal position. California-based Iotapa is very interesting to me. While primarily a speed horse, she has demonstrated the ability to rate to some extent, and always seems to be more than ready to out-game another horse to the finish. Her win in the Vanity Stakes(G1) seems to have been a freak performance, and while she hasn’t replicated it since, I think she has the potential to run another big race in her second start off a brief rest.


$2 Win: #11 Close Hatches

$1 Exacta Box: #3 Iotapa / #7 Don’t Tell Sophia / #11 Close Hatches

$2 W/P/S: #3 Iotapa

Two-Year-Old Watch List

Every spring/summer, I begin looking through various records to see what two-year-olds I should be keeping an eye on. I’ll add a number of unraced two-year-olds to my Equibase stable based on pedigree and/or good workouts, and then occasionally add more after an impressive debut effort. After the success of last year’s “crop” – Kentucky Derby winner Orb, Belmont Stakes starter Incognito, multiple GSP Saint Vigeur, and multiple GSP Cue the Moon were all added to the stable before or immediately following their racing debuts – I’ve decided to make my watchlisted two-year-olds public.

I will make some posts under my Horse Racing Hipster tag and evaluate some of these horses individually at a later date.

Buneya was a $625,000 yearling purchase at the Keeneland September sale. The daughter of Indian Charlie is out of the Gone West mare Witness Post.

Chivalrous is a half-brother to Haskell winner Paynter. The son of Street Cry sold for $1,000,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale.

Fascinating is by Smart Strike and out of Untouched Talent, making her a half-sister to the brilliant Kentucky Derby and Preakness runner-up Bodemeister. She sold for $1,300,000 at the Keeneland September yearling sale.

Indian Smoke is by Zensational and out of the champion sprinter Indian Blessing.

Lord Lochinvar is by A.P. Indy and out of the Lord at War mare Lady Lochinvar, making him a 3/4 sister to multiple G3 winner Aurora Lights (by A.P. Indy’s son Pulpit), and from the same female family as G1 winner Icon Project and multiple G2 winner Munnings.

Mei Ling is a filly by Empire Maker who hails from the same female family as Lord Lochinvar, being out of Lord Lochinvar’s half-sister Lochinvar’s Gold. It’s worth noting that Mei Ling’s sire, Empire Maker, is also the sire of Icon Project.

Mullins Bay is a full sister to top turf sprinter Bridgetown

Sabbatical is by Medaglia d’Oro and out of Daydreaming, a G2-winning full sister to graded stakes winner Girolamo, She’s a Winner (dam of G1-winner Bluegrass Cat), and Supercharger (dam of Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver).

Satirical is by Distorted Humor and out of the mare Rockcide. She is a half-sister to multiple graded stakes winner Rule, and her dam is a half-sister to Funny Cide (by Distorted Humor).

Savvy Star is by Medaglia d’Oro and out of She’s a Winner, making this filly a half-sister to Bluegrass Cat.

Seagate is a colt by Distorted Humor and out of the multiple G1-winning mare Cocoa Beach.

Share the Music is a filly by Unbridled’s Song who is out of a half-sister to the dam of Kentucky Derby runner-up Eight Belles (also by Unbridled’s Song)

Wait No More was the sale-topper when she sold for $1,575,000 at the Fasig-Tipton September sale. She is by Medaglia d’Oro and out of the multiple G1-winning mare Wait a While.

Analysis: 2013 Kentucky Derby

As you all know, today is the Kentucky Derby, and a very competitive field of 19 is signed on to contest the 1 1/4 classic. Here’s my horse-by-horse analysis of the race:

Oxbow is the two horse, and after the scratch of Black Onyx he will be breaking closest to the rail, though the one post will be left open. His best bet is likely for jockey Gary Stevens to get him on or near the lead early and hope he’s good enough. He had a dull effort in the Arkansas Derby (G1) after being far back early, but if he returns to his prior form in the Rebel (G2), Risen Star (G2), and LeComte Stakes (G3), he fits with these. One thing that you need not worry about is the distance – he is by Awesome Again and out of a full sister to both Tiznow and the dam of Belmont Stakes (G1) runner-up Paynter, also by Awesome Again. Workout reports have not been great, and while I don’t see him winning, he would not be as shocking to me as his 30-1 morning line suggests.

Revolutionary gets Calvin Borel for the first time, and with only one horse between him and Calvin’s coveted rail, he figures to get the trip he wants. The colt has proven capable of overcoming traffic trouble, and is the most tenacious horse in the field. If he has the lead coming to the finish, I don’t think anyone will beat him in a head-to-head duel. Rain is expected for the race, and Revolutionary posted his career-best 102 Beyer on a good track at Aqueduct. He traces tail-female to La Troienne, whose tail-female descendants have already won two Derbies in the 21st century (Super Saver and Smarty Jones), and another from her line, Bluegrass Cat, ran second in 2006.

Golden Soul is 1-for-5 lifetime. He was fourth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) and second in the LeComte (G3),  which earned him the points necessary to get in the race. I don’t see him being a factor.

Normandy Invasion is coming off a closing second to Verrazano in the Wood Memorial (G1). He will be closing late, and will have a much more favorable pace setup than he did in the Wood or in the Remsen Stakes (G2), where he was beaten a nose by Overanalyze. He’ll be running third off the layoff today and shouldn’t be adversely affected by a wet track. He has a chance, but I don’t see anything less than his 12-1 morning line as good value.

Mylute is the six horse, and gets Rosie Napravnik back on. He ran a very good second to Revolutionary in the Louisiana Derby (G2) after removing blinkers. He should continue to improve, and sire Midnight Lute has proven incredibly potent. Though Midnight Lute himself was a champion sprinter, that was due to breathing problems and not necessarily a lack of stamina. He was by 1998 Derby winner Real Quiet, so distance isn’t the primary concern here. The main question is whether he’s talented enough.

Giant Finish  is another longshot, coming in off of a 3rd-place finish in Turfway’s Spiral Stakes (G3). Nothing about him suggests he will be a factor – both of his career victories came against New York breds and he has yet to face a horse nearly as talented as these.

Goldencents is California’s Derby hopeful for last year’s winning trainer Doug O’Neill. He is a major pace player, and while he proved his talent with an impressive Santa Anita Derby (G1) win last time out, the distance is a major question. He consistently runs well, and if he can get into a good groove early, he may be able to carry his speed farther than expected.

Overanalyze won the Arkansas Derby (G1) in his last start, and the Remsen (G2) and Futurity Stakes (G2) at two. He’s versatile enough that Rafael Bejarano can place him in a good spot, but a mile and a quarter may not be ideal for the son of Dixieland Band. However, he should improve third off the layoff and is not without a chance.

The ten horse is Palace Malice, and I think he has a legitimate longshot chance. He is coming off of a runner-up effort in the Bluegrass Stakes (G1) after a brutal trip led to a 7th-place finish in the Louisiana Derby (G2). This son of Curlin should handle an off track, and I like that he is coming from a synthetic track back to dirt. He has a good shot to hit the board at a reasonable price.

Lines of Battle ships from overseas off a victory in the UAE Derby (G2), a 1 3/16ths mile race, leaving little doubt that he can get the distance. Aidan O’Brien can get a horse ready to win in the US, but not sure that this horse is suited to a mile and a quarter on dirt.

Itsmyluckyday was the beaten favorite behind Orb in the Florida Derby (G1) after defeating juvenile champion Shanghai Bobby in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3). He won on a sloppy track in his debut, and while distance may be a slight concern, he is one of the most talented horses in the race and could be overlooked by many.

Falling Sky is another pace factor, though for how long remains to be seen. The Sam F Davis (G3) winner has since been well-beaten by Verrazano, Java’s War, Overanalyze, and Frac Daddy. Doesn’t seem likely.

Verrazano is undefeated in four career starts. The half-brother to G2 winner El Padrino has done nothing wrong, but I do not think the distance will suit him. After a 16+ length allowance win at a mile, where he earned a 105 Beyer, he came back with 101 and 95 Beyers in his next two starts, each a sixteenth of a mile longer than the last. This doesn’t bode well for the horse adding another furlong. He shouldn’t be far off the pace, and has proven that he has ability, but as one of the favorites I don’t think he is a wise bet.

Charming Kitten will be trying the dirt for the first time, and as a son of Kitten’s Joy that is a bit dubious. He is very consistent, however, and was beaten only half a length by Java’s War and Palace Malice in the Blue Grass (G1). He hasn’t beaten much in his other races, however, and doesn’t look like a likely winner.

Orb is the morning line favorite, and my selection in the race. I watch-listed this horse after his debut at Saratoga, where he was off slow but made up significant ground to finish third. He has been working well at Churchill, an off track should not bother him, and he gets the red-hot Joel Rosario aboard. He defeated Revolutionary when breaking his maiden, and has proven to be a very high-class horse. Distance is a slight concern, of course, as Malibu Moon isn’t the greatest stamina influence, but being out of an Unbridled mare from the family of Ruffian makes me think he’ll be just fine. He has overcome trouble to win, and I find nothing to fault. I expect him to be mid-pack early and make a big move to give Shug McGaughey, the Phippses, and the Janneys their first Derby win.

Will Take Charge is D. Wayne Lukas’ second horse in the field. He defeated stablemate Oxbow in the Rebel Stakes (G2), overcoming trouble to do so. A repeat of that effort could put him in the mix, if not at the top, but his poor effort in the Southwest Stakes (G3) was on a sloppy track and that could be his biggest flaw.

Frac Daddy was a distant second to Overanalyze in the Arkansas Derby (G1), and was well beaten in both the Florida Derby (G1) and Holy Bull (G3). He reportedly outworked stablemate Java’s War on April 27th, and Ken McPeek is quietly confident that he will run well. I don’t think he’s good enough, but if any horse is to blow up the tote board, it might be him.

Java’s War won the Blue Grass (G1) in a very impressive last-to-first effort. He hasn’t won on the dirt, but ran second to Verrazano in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2). While the pace should be fair, I don’t think he will get the best trip as a deep closer and he may bounce off of such a monstrous effort three weeks ago.

Vyjack gets the outside post. The gelding by Into Mischief suffered his first career loss when third to Verrazano and Normandy Invasion in the Wood Memorial (G1), but he came out of the race with a lung infection. Whether the infection affected his Wood performance or if the race induced the problem is uncertain. He has won on an off track, and in fact posted a career-best 96 Beyer when winning a stake at Aqueduct in the slop. Another son of Into Mischief, distance a serious question, and Garrett Gomez will have to be aggressive from the outside. The competition he defeated in his four career wins is questionable, and I don’t like him today.

In summation, my top pick is #16 Orb, with #3 Revolutionary and #12 Itsmyluckyday my second and third choices, respectively. I will likely be playing #10 Palace Malice to show, especially at 15-1 or better.